![]() It looks like the hurricane could pass right over the Outer Banks. INSKEEP: Now, I'm looking at the National Hurricane Center map here, and it does show Dorian, shows its path, and it looks like it would gradually come - or could gradually come - into more and more collision with the Outer Banks in North Carolina and other parts of North Carolina. And in addition to that, we've had quite a few reports of tornadoes this morning across parts of northeastern South Carolina not too far from Myrtle Beach. That is now starting to spread into North Carolina. Unfortunately, we've been seeing a lot of hurricane force wind gusts and tropical storm force winds along the coast of South Carolina. HAWTHORNE: Well, it's not, in fact, a lot less dangerous than it has been. INSKEEP: Can we be relieved at all that it's larger? By which I mean, is it more diffuse and maybe less dangerous at any one point? And we have tropical storm force winds, Steve, that are extending outward more than 140 miles from the center. Originally, Dorian was a relatively small hurricane when it was in the Bahamas in terms of its overall size. The size of the storm has actually been getting larger. Now, it is a Category 2 with top sustained winds of 110 miles per hour. It stayed as a Category 3 for most of this morning. Steve, briefly last night, it got back up to Category 3 status as it approached the coast of South Carolina. HAWTHORNE: Well, right now, the hurricane is a Category 2 hurricane. INSKEEP: Maybe we can begin by getting a description of this storm as it is now in terms of its size, speed and power. And Ray Hawthorne is waiting with us and also monitoring events. Having unleashed massive destruction on the Bahamas, we wait to see what happens next. The model forecast is available on the Coastal Change Hazards Portal and more information about the model can be found at: Scenario-Based Assessments for Coastal Change Hazard Forecasts.The map from the National Hurricane Center now shows Hurricane Dorian crowding the coast of South Carolina. The color band closest to the shoreline is the probability of dune erosion, the middle color band is the probability that sand dunes will be overtopped by waves during the storm and the outer color band is the probability that the sand dunes will be completely inundated/flooded. This includes the combined effect of surge and wave runup. The coastal change forecast model predicts the probability of where and how primary sand dunes along the coast will be impacted by water levels during a storm. Quantitative observations of coastal change Post-storm lidar survey of open coast shoreline from Florida to Virginia Qualitative validation of coastal change forecast (Poster session presented at 2020 Ocean Sciences meeting) ![]() Pre- and post-storm photos documenting coastal change ![]() The combined effects of surge and storm-induced wave runup created elevated total water levels at the shoreline, causing extensive erosion of the beach and dunes. These large waves contributed an additional 1-3 meters of wave runup at the shoreline. Offshore wave heights in excess of 7 meters were observed near Cape Canaveral, FL and wave heights in excess of 8 meters were observed near Cape Hatteras, NC. Storm surge reached 0.5 to 1.5 meters above predicted tides. ![]() Southeast coast, from Florida to North Carolina, from September 3-6, 2019. Hurricane Dorian impacted a large portion of the U.S.
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